Long-form guides to interpreting the data and signals shown on the Market Pulse dashboard. Each piece is written for active traders, portfolio managers, and analysts who already understand markets but want to go deeper on specific signals or asset classes.
High-yield credit spreads have predicted every major equity drawdown of the last 25 years — from the 2007 Global Financial Crisis to the 2020 COVID crash to the 2022 bear market. Here's how to read them, what they're saying right now, and why most retail dashboards ignore them.
Prediction markets aggregate the views of thousands of capital-risking participants. They have outperformed traditional pollsters on every major election since 2020 and are now used by Wall Street rates desks to price Fed decisions. We explain how they work and when to trust them.
The VIX gets all the press, but it's just one of five volatility indices that together describe the full risk regime. The MOVE Index measures Treasury volatility. DVOL covers crypto. GVZ tracks gold. OVX measures crude oil. When they diverge, something is brewing.
Geopolitical headlines move markets faster than any economic data release, but most traders react to them emotionally and lose money. The right approach is mechanical: identify which assets are exposed to which risks, set alert thresholds in advance, and trade the second-order effects, not the headlines.
Not every red day on the S&P is a risk-off day. Real risk-off has a specific cross-asset signature: gold up, dollar bid, oil down, Treasuries bid, equities down, credit spreads widening, all at once. The Cross-Asset Panic Score on the dashboard quantifies it.