MORNING BRIEF · 6:30 AM ET

Morning Brief — Friday, September 25, 2026

Published September 25, 2026 at 6:30 AM

By Pulse Desk · AI-assisted synthesis from market data + curated news, reviewed by editorial

This brief is produced with AI assistance from Claude (Anthropic). See our methodology for how briefs are produced.

📌 Top Takeaways

Market Overview: Premarket activity shows SPY at $769.88, up 0.27%, while VIX declines to 15.33, indicating lower volatility expectations.
Commodities: WTI crude oil is down 1.87%, trading at $92.84, reflecting ongoing supply-demand dynamics, while gold prices sit at $4,341, up 0.99%.
Crypto: Bitcoin rises to $84,713, gaining 0.40%, amidst neutral flows in ETF trading, while Ethereum is also up by 0.99% at $2,714.
Macroeconomic Data: The PCE Price Index is due for release today, providing insights into inflationary pressures, followed by NFP on October 2 and FOMC on October 7.
Geopolitical Events: The world closely watches developments as a Russian drone strike in Kyiv causes civilian casualties, emphasizing the need for traders to stay informed on potential impacts on market sentiment.

U.S. orders to China experience a surprise jump as anticipation builds ahead of the upcoming Trump-Xi summit. Financial markets are mixed, with the SPY at $769.88 and the VIX declining to 15.33 as credit conditions remain elevated amid a neutral crypto regime.

U.S. Treasury yields are edging higher, with the 10Y yield at 5.162%, amid a global bond sell-off that is easing as oil prices decline. Concerns over inflation are reflected in Canadian wage growth, which is slowing to 2%, below the 3% inflation rate. Current economic data releases are contributing to market volatility, with the PCE Price Index set for release today.

Private credit spreads are tightening, highlighted by a convergence in CLO spreads. The high yield option-adjusted spread (HY OAS) stands at 273 bps, with the Credit Pulse composite at 38/100 indicating elevated credit conditions. While bank lending standards show easing as of 2026-07-01, the broader credit market highlights ongoing challenges amid rising rates impacting corporate credit first.

ArcelorMittal halts operations at its largest Ukrainian plant due to missile strikes, incurring a $1 billion impact. Additionally, a Russian drone strike in Kyiv results in civilian casualties, including a teenager killed and several others injured. Markets are pricing the geopolitical tensions at a calm level, with a composite of 13/100 for geo risk.

Crude oil prices are declining, with WTI at $92.84, down 1.87%. Gold is priced at $4,341, reflecting a gain of 0.99%.

Bitcoin at $84,713 (+0.40%) and Ethereum at $2,714 (+0.99%) reflect market resilience amidst elevated geopolitical risk. The crypto regime composite is neutral at 43/100, while Bitcoin fund AUM stands at $81B.